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The Northeast GA Weather Center's 7-Day AccuWeather Forecast.

ISSUED: 10/15/2025 10:00 AM ET VALID UNTIL: 10/25/2025 01:00 PM ET FORECASTER: Timothy Hayes Commerce Georgia Forecast Office

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Welcome to a fascinating 10-day period for Northeast Georgia! The overarching theme will be a significant transition from warm, late-summer-like conditions to a decidedly autumnal pattern, thanks to a potent cold front passage expected early in the weekend.

The period begins with Days 1-3 (Thursday through Saturday) dominated by a strong, persistent high-pressure ridge situated over the Southeast. This ridge is responsible for pumping warm, dry air into the region, suppressing any significant rain development, and leading to classic "Indian Summer" weather. Temperatures will soar well into the upper 70s and lower 80s—about 5 to 10 degrees above climatological averages for mid-October. Morning lows will remain mild, generally in the upper 50s and low 60s, keeping any need for heavy coats at bay.

The major shift occurs on Day 4 (Sunday, October 19th). A robust, negatively-tilted upper-level trough will dive out of the Midwest, pushing a strong cold front directly into our region. This setup increases atmospheric instability and lift, leading to our highest chance of organized showers and thunderstorms for the entire 10-day period, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. This will be the leading edge of the cooler air.

Following the frontal passage on Days 5-7 (Monday through Wednesday), the weather will dramatically improve, but the temperatures will plummet. A fresh surge of Canadian high pressure will build in behind the front, ushering in much drier, crisp, and cooler air. This will be a classic "fall feel," with brilliant sunshine but significantly lower dew points. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the low to mid-40s, bringing the possibility of widespread Frost Advisories across the higher terrain and valleys of Northeast GA, especially on Tuesday morning. Daytime highs will struggle to reach 70°F.

Finally, in Days 8-10 (Thursday through Saturday), the high-pressure system begins to retreat offshore into the Atlantic. This shift will allow for a return of southerly flow, gradually warming temperatures back into the mid to upper 70s. Expect excellent fall weather for the end of the period, characterized by increasing clouds on the final day as we track the next system developing to our west. Overall, this forecast promises beautiful fall foliage visibility and a much-needed taste of truly crisp autumn air! 🍂

DETAILED FORECAST: DAY-BY-DAY BREAKDOWN 🗓️

Thursday Oct 16th, 2025 High 78°F | Low 56°F | Rain Chance 0% Expected Conditions: Sunny ☀️ Discussion: High pressure dominates, providing abundant sunshine and dry conditions. Temperatures will climb comfortably into the upper 70s, making this a perfect day for outdoor activities. The air mass is stable with low humidity, thanks to a northern track of the jet stream, keeping moisture and storm activity well to the west.

Friday Oct 17th, 2025 High 80°F | Low 58°F | Rain Chance 0% Expected Conditions: Mostly Sunny 😎 Discussion: The ridge continues to hold, allowing warm air advection to push high temperatures slightly higher, potentially reaching 80°F. Winds will be light and southwesterly, pulling in just a touch more moisture, but conditions remain dry and pleasant. Enjoy the heat—it’s the last of the significant warmth before the front arrives!

Saturday Oct 18th, 2025 High 82°F | Low 60°F | Rain Chance 10% Expected Conditions: Partly Cloudy 🌥️ Discussion: This is the calm before the storm. Warm air surges ahead of the approaching cold front, leading to the warmest day of the forecast period. We'll see increasing high clouds throughout the afternoon as the upper-level trough begins to amplify to our west. The slight rain chance is limited to the far western reaches of the region late at night, as the air remains capped.

Sunday Oct 19th, 2025 High 74°F | Low 55°F | Rain Chance 60% Expected Conditions: Showers & Thunderstorms ⛈️ Discussion: The main event! A powerful cold front will sweep across Northeast GA, likely crossing the region between midday and evening. Ahead of the front, temperatures will still feel mild, but once the system moves through, we will see a rapid temperature drop. The 60% rain chance suggests scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, potentially impacting afternoon plans. Weather Process: Strong convergence along the frontal boundary interacting with elevated instability will be the main driver.

Monday Oct 20th, 2025 High 68°F | Low 45°F | Rain Chance 20% Expected Conditions: Cooler/Partly Sunny 🌬️ Discussion: Post-frontal clearing. While the main rain threat is gone, scattered residual showers might linger through the morning, particularly in the mountain areas (the 20% chance). The main story is the crisp, noticeably cooler air filtering in behind the front. Highs will only reach the upper 60s, and winds will be breezy from the northwest, reinforcing the cool-down.

Tuesday Oct 21st, 2025 High 66°F | Low 40°F | Rain Chance 0% Expected Conditions: Clear & Crisp 🥶 Discussion: High pressure directly overhead ensures a picture-perfect but chilly day. With clear skies, light winds, and the dry air mass, overnight lows will bottom out around 40°F, potentially triggering Frost Advisories for the entire region. The atmosphere will be incredibly stable, offering stunning blue skies and low humidity. Excellent fall foliage viewing day! 🍁

Wednesday Oct 22nd, 2025 High 70°F | Low 42°F | Rain Chance 0% Expected Conditions: Sunny/Perfect ☀️ Discussion: Another outstanding day as the high pressure begins to drift eastward. We warm up slightly, breaking the 70°F mark, but the air remains dry and comfortable. The weather process is simple: subsiding air under the high keeps clouds away and limits heating to sunshine only, resulting in ideal daytime temperatures.

Thursday Oct 23rd, 2025 High 73°F | Low 46°F | Rain Chance 0% Expected Conditions: Mostly Sunny 👍 Discussion: The warming trend continues as the high pressure system moves further out into the Atlantic, allowing more of a return flow from the southwest. This will slowly increase our low temperatures and keep afternoon highs on the climb. Humidity remains low, resulting in another fantastic fall day.

Friday Oct 24th, 2025 High 76°F | Low 48°F | Rain Chance 10% Expected Conditions: Increasing Clouds ☁️ Discussion: We begin to feel the influence of the next system developing in the Mississippi Valley. High-level clouds will filter in, increasing throughout the day, which helps keep our overnight low from dropping too far. The air remains mostly dry, limiting the rain chance to a slight possibility late in the day or overnight.

Saturday Oct 25th, 2025 High 78°F | Low 50°F | Rain Chance 20% Expected Conditions: Partly Cloudy 🌤️ Discussion: The final day of the forecast period sees temperatures near 80°F again as the region gets locked into a southerly return flow. Scattered clouds are expected as a weak trough approaches. The 20% rain chance is for isolated pop-up showers, but the day should be mostly dry and very mild.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

Severe Weather Outlook Discussion

The outlook for the next 10 days remains generally low concerning organized severe weather for Northeast Georgia. The first half of the forecast is characterized by dominant high pressure and stable air, which strongly suppresses thunderstorm development. Our only window for severe weather potential is associated with the cold front passage on Sunday, October 19th. While we expect scattered thunderstorms, the best dynamics (shear, instability) are forecast to be focused west and north of the region. As the front pushes south, the instability will likely wane, limiting the overall threat profile. However, any thunderstorms that do develop on Sunday could pose a localized damaging wind or heavy rain threat. Post-frontal, the air becomes exceptionally dry and stable, eliminating any severe weather concerns through the remainder of the forecast period.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

As of this issuance, the Atlantic Basin hurricane season remains active, running until November 30th. Currently, the main tropical feature is Tropical Storm Lorenzo, which is well out over the central Atlantic Ocean and poses absolutely no threat to the continental United States or Northeast Georgia over the next 10 days.

We are monitoring the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico for any late-season development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the western Caribbean and Gulf are still warm enough to support development. However, current upper-level wind shear patterns are generally unfavorable near the continental U.S. coast. The consensus is for a relatively quiet week in terms of direct tropical impacts to the Southeast. The Northeast GA Weather Center will continue to monitor all designated areas of interest (AOIs) and will provide updates if any system threatens the Gulf or Atlantic coasts.

FINAL THOUGHTS

This 10-day forecast is a classic display of Southern Autumn variability, taking us from the warmth of an Indian Summer to the crisp air of late October. Our key takeaway is to prepare for the temperature swing associated with the cold front on Sunday, October 19th.

• Enjoy the upper 70s and low 80s warmth through Saturday.

• Be ready for scattered showers and potential thunderstorms on Sunday.

• Prepare for much cooler mornings with possible frost in the valleys starting Tuesday and Wednesday, with lows dipping to 40°F.

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